Forecast comparison
Recorded sales are censored by stockouts and partial fulfilments. The probabilistic model reconstructs latent demand before forecasting.
The recorded sales decline was partly caused by 11 stockout weeks and 5 partial fulfilments. The model estimates that approximately 9% of latent demand was not visible in recorded sales.
Stockout weeks
11
Partial fulfilments
5
Latent demand not visible
9%
Forecast value add
9%
vs incumbent WAPE 33%
Modelled lost sales
PKR 15.8m
Model diagnostics
Accuracy, bias and business impact for Surf Excel 500g. Better accuracy is only useful if it improves service and reduces lost sales.
| Model | WAPE | Bias | MASE | Quantile loss | Forecast value add | Service level | Lost sales | Planner override |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incumbent forecast | 32.7% | -12.2% | 1.18 | 0.27 | baseline | 88.4% | PKR 15.8m | 28% |
| Seasonal baseline | 27.8% | -3.5% | 1.03 | 0.23 | 14.9% | 90.0% | PKR 14.0m | 11% |
| Stockout-adjusted probabilistic | 29.8% | 3.4% | 0.95 | 0.19 | 9.0% | 96.4% | PKR 11.2m | 9% |
For this SKU the stockout-adjusted model improves accuracy by 9% and raises modelled service level to 96.4%, reducing lost sales from PKR 15.8m to PKR 11.2m.
Champion–challenger across the portfolio
The probabilistic model does not always win. For stable, low-variability SKUs a simple seasonal baseline is the honest champion.
| SKU | Category | Incumbent WAPE | Baseline WAPE | Probabilistic WAPE | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surf Excel 500g | Home Care | 32.7% | 27.8% | 29.8% | Seasonal baseline |
| Surf Excel 1kg | Home Care | 32.7% | 28.1% | 23.0% | Probabilistic |
| Rin 500g | Home Care | 26.2% | 26.1% | 22.3% | Probabilistic |
| Vim 500ml | Home Care | 35.0% | 19.7% | 24.5% | Seasonal baseline |
| Sunlight 400g | Home Care | 26.3% | 27.4% | 18.5% | Probabilistic |
| Sunsilk 185ml | Hair Care | 30.7% | 19.2% | 22.0% | Seasonal baseline |
| Sunsilk 375ml | Hair Care | 32.4% | 31.5% | 25.3% | Probabilistic |
| Clear 185ml | Hair Care | 32.7% | 25.4% | 30.0% | Seasonal baseline |
| Dove Shampoo 180ml | Hair Care | 27.2% | 22.5% | 18.6% | Probabilistic |
| TRESemmé 400ml | Hair Care | 28.4% | 26.6% | 20.9% | Probabilistic |
| Lifebuoy Soap 100g | Personal Care | 24.9% | 22.0% | 17.3% | Probabilistic |
| Lifebuoy Shampoo 175ml | Personal Care | 30.0% | 18.9% | 21.4% | Seasonal baseline |
| Lux Soap 100g | Personal Care | 27.8% | 20.9% | 25.5% | Seasonal baseline |
| Dove Beauty Bar 100g | Personal Care | 26.4% | 22.7% | 21.1% | Probabilistic |
| Vaseline Lotion 200ml | Personal Care | 26.9% | 25.3% | 23.4% | Probabilistic |
| Knorr Noodles Chicken | Foods | 30.4% | 26.1% | 20.7% | Probabilistic |
| Knorr Noodles Chatpata | Foods | 28.9% | 23.8% | 22.1% | Probabilistic |
| Knorr Cubes | Foods | 28.5% | 28.9% | 23.2% | Probabilistic |
| Knorr Recipe Mix | Foods | 25.5% | 25.2% | 16.1% | Probabilistic |
| Knorr Soup Pack | Foods | 33.0% | 33.7% | 26.7% | Probabilistic |